Bitcoin's $378 million short squeeze is already fading. The coin briefly passed $81,000 on November 4, 2026, after a one-hour wave of forced buying wiped out $378 million in short positions, per CoinGlass data cited by 24/7 Wall St. By the time of that report, Bitcoin traded at $78,616, down 0.69% in 24 hours and back under $80,000 — a level it held for less than a day.
The mechanism matters more than the headline number. A short squeeze is a chain reaction: traders who bet on falling prices are forced to buy back the asset when it rises sharply, which pushes the price higher and closes more shorts. That kind of rally runs on liquidated positions, not new money. The data suggests this one did. Open interest — the value of contracts still active — rose only 0.3% during the move, meaning few new positions replaced the liquidated ones, per the report.
For readers tracking the wider crypto news cycle, the setup began on election night. Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress on November 3, and Bitcoin slid as results came in, bottoming near $75,600 around 10 p.m. ET. James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, noted the win was largely anticipated before the vote, setting the stage for a relief rally once uncertainty lifted. The rally peaked at 10 a.m. ET on November 4 — the busiest hour of either day — and shorts were caught on the wrong side of it.
How one-sided were the liquidations?
Heavily. Of the $267 million in Bitcoin liquidations on November 5, roughly 93% were short positions, per the report. Across the broader derivatives market that day, liquidations rose 53% to $715 million, with about 65% being shorts. The gap between those two figures is the story: forced buying concentrated on Bitcoin itself, leaving most other coins out of the move.
Funding rates — the periodic payment one side of a futures contract makes to the other — turned mostly positive after the squeeze, suggesting traders have begun to lean long. That is a shift in positioning, not a confirmation of demand. Positive funding means longs pay shorts, which typically signals crowded long positioning rather than fresh spot buying.
Why did the rally stall under $80,000?
Because the buyers underneath it are losing money. Data from Glassnode shows only about 38% of Bitcoin held by newer buyers is in profit, down sharply from 97.5% at the start of October. When most recent buyers sit at a loss, rallies give them a chance to exit near their cost — which is exactly the selling pressure that re-emerged on November 5, pushing Bitcoin back below $80,000 by 7 a.m. ET in its heaviest trading hour since the squeeze.
The moving-average picture is mixed, per the report. Bitcoin closed at $80,443 on November 4, above its 20-day average of $80,232, but has since fallen below both levels and now trades under its 50-day average of $82,006 — a medium-term downward trend. The longer-term trend remains positive on the 200-day average of $73,186. Bitcoin is down 8.09% over the past 30 days and sits 37.65% below its all-time high of $126,080.
This pattern of a sharp move that fails to hold will look familiar to readers of our earlier coverage of Bitcoin's June slide, a failed rally and unwound leverage. The common thread is positioning, not conviction: when a move is driven by liquidations, the fuel burns out the moment the shorts are cleared. We covered a connected angle in Bitcoin's June Slide: A Failed Rally, an 8.3% Day and Unwound Leverage.
What are the key levels to watch?
The report lays out a ladder of levels, sourced to Glassnode and moving-average data:
- $87,000 — a cluster of short liquidations, potentially setting up a second squeeze if price reaches it
- $82,006 — the 50-day simple moving average, now overhead resistance
- $81,000 — the squeeze high briefly reached on November 4
- $80,232 — the 20-day simple moving average
- $80,000 — the round-number level Bitcoin fell below on November 5
- $77,700 — the average cost basis for active investors, per Glassnode, just below the current price
- $75,700 — support, per Glassnode
- $75,600 — the election-night low
- $73,186 — the 200-day simple moving average
The active-investor cost basis at $77,700 is the level the report flags as the test. Price sits just above it. A hold there without short liquidations would mean the market is standing on its own; a break would put the $75,700 support and the election-night low in play.
Did ETF demand back the move?
Only weakly. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $74.6 million on November 4, ending a three-day streak of outflows, per the report. Underneath that small net number, the split was stark: the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) lost $201.2 million while the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) gained $236.7 million. A $74.6 million net inflow against a $378 million liquidation event is not the same order of magnitude — the price move was derivatives-driven, and the ETF tape confirms it. For context on how these flows have swung this year, see our coverage of IBIT's second $528 million single-day outflow and the month spot Bitcoin ETFs passed $100 billion in combined assets. For related coverage, see Spot Bitcoin ETFs Passed $100 Billion in Combined Assets in Their First Year, Filings Show.
Why did altcoins miss the squeeze?
Because the forced buying was almost entirely a Bitcoin event. With Bitcoin accounting for 93% of short liquidations against the market-wide 65%, altcoins got little direct benefit. Over the week from October 29, Bitcoin rose 1%, Ethereum gained 4.67%, and Solana fell 2.8%, per the report. The 30-day picture is worse further down the cap: Ethereum is down 12.7% against Bitcoin's 8.09%, and Solana is down 23.1%, trading at $92.80 — below both its 20-day average of $100.29 and its 50-day average of $108.58. Ethereum's larger bounce reflects its tendency to amplify Bitcoin's moves in both directions, the report notes, rather than independent momentum.
Is the squeeze over?
The first one is. The evidence — flat open interest, underwater recent buyers, sellers re-emerging within a day, and thin ETF inflows — points to a position-driven spike that has already spent itself. Whether a second squeeze develops depends on whether price can climb back toward the $87,000 short-liquidation cluster and hold above the $77,700 cost basis without new forced buying. That is a question the data cannot answer in advance, and the report leaves it open. What the numbers do establish is that the November 4 rally had almost no fresh money behind it, and the market has said so by taking the price back.
